Eenrgy Market Update: Prices Ease Heading Into Spring
Natural gas prices continue their downward trend. The NYMEX settled at $2.96, a full $4.50 lower than February’s close. With an El Niño pattern expected later this summer, markets anticipate continued softness heading into next winter.
Looking ahead, January pricing remains above $5.00, but December, February, and March are all near or below $4.50 — a good sign for buyers planning ahead.
In electricity markets, the Day-Ahead Index shows slight declines over the coming years, peaking in 2027 before easing in 2028. Although early, this trend suggests favorable conditions for longer-term contracts.
Meanwhile, storage activity saw a surprise withdrawal of -54 Bcf last week. With injection season officially beginning April 1, forecasts point to steady injections across the spring.
What This Means for You
Energy markets are expected to remain seasonally volatile — higher in winter and peak summer months, softer during spring and fall. Ampica’s experts recommend:
- Hedging during shoulder months (April, May, September, October) to lock in favorable rates.
- Exploring 2029 pricing, which currently presents strong hedge opportunities.
- Preparing for capacity shortfalls: The 2027/2028 auction failed to secure enough backup capacity, heightening the risk of rolling brownouts or blackouts.
Now is the time to strengthen energy resilience:
- Invest in backup generators or solar-plus-storage systems.
- Review your facility’s power-quality measures.
- Participate in Demand Response programs to reduce costs while supporting grid reliability.
Weather Outlook: April 1–April 5
Expect a mild to warm week across the southern U.S., with highs in the 60s–80s, and 90s in parts of the Southwest, Texas, and southern Plains. The northern states will range from the 40s to the 70s, dipping into the 30s at times. Light energy demand early in the week will pick up slightly as cooler air moves into northern regions.
Natural Gas Storage and Supply
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
Near-Term (Next 3 Months) — Spring 2026
Prices are relatively low and stable, firmly in the $2.95–$3.34 range:
- May 2026 — $2.952 (+2.25%)
- June 2026 — $3.092 (+1.88%)
- July 2026 — $3.338 (+1.37%)
All three months ticked slightly higher today, but remain well within comfortable, affordable territory. This reflects the typical spring shoulder season — mild weather, low demand, and active storage injections keeping a lid on prices.
Next Winter (2026–2027) — The Price Jump
This is where the story gets interesting. Prices rise sharply and quickly once winter approaches:
- December 2026 — $4.659 (+0.67%)
- January 2027 — $5.114 (+0.14%) ← peak of the curve
- February 2027 — $4.574 (+0.42%)
- March 2027 — $3.612 (+0.73%)
The $2+ spread between spring and winter pricing is a textbook illustration of seasonal volatility — and a compelling visual argument for why clients should consider locking in shoulder month hedges now before winter premiums creep higher.
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
The Bottom Line for Ampica Clients
Spring is cheap. Winter is not. The gap between May’s $2.95 and January’s $5.11 tells the entire story — and makes the case for strategic hedging before the market reprices heading into fall.
LNG Exports
Both NYMEX forward strips and LNG export levels remain near recent averages, suggesting a largely balanced market for now.
(Charts: NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips and LNG Exports)
Electricity Market Trends
(PJM) Ad Hub day-ahead prices remain under 5¢/kWh through the next three months, with next winter’s pricing also looking more favorable than last year’s.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
JM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
This chart shows where current PJM AD Hub day‑ahead and forward power prices sit versus the past two years of trading, and whether today’s levels look cheap or expensive for each future period.
Big picture
- Each bar represents a 24‑month trading range for a specific month, quarter, or year in the future, with the light blue band showing the lowest and highest prices over the last 2 years.
- The dark mark inside each bar is today’s forward price, so you can instantly see if the market is currently near the top, middle, or bottom of its recent range.
What the table tells you
- The table underneath lists, for each period (Q2‑2026, Q3‑2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc.):
- Current price in that strip.
- The maximum and minimum prices over the last 24 months and the dates they occurred.
- The current percentile (for example, 3% means today is near the very bottom of the 2‑year range; 86% means it’s near the top).
- The actual prices at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles act like “cheap / mid / rich” reference points.
How to interpret it for decisions
- Periods where the current price is low on the bar and at a low percentile suggest relatively attractive buying or hedging opportunities compared with recent history.
- Periods where the current price is high on the bar and at a high percentile indicate the market is pricing that future strip richly, so you may want to be more cautious about locking in too much volume there.
Natural Gas Production
