Pricing Snapshot:
Pricing
Natural gas remains in the low $3.00 range and is expected to stay relatively soft through 2027. Current pricing is still hovering near 24-month lows, with stronger upward movement not expected until the 2027–2028 winter strip. Even then, some forecasts are already leaning toward an earlier and milder winter pattern in 2027.
Electricity pricing is also beginning to ease. The May index averaged below $0.04 per kWh, and forward 2027 pricing has also started to trend lower.
LNG exports have pulled back to 16.8 Bcf/d, the lowest level seen in months, but the slowdown appears to be tied more to seasonal maintenance than weaker demand. Meanwhile, the new Golden Pass LNG facility in Sabine Pass, Texas, is becoming a major market factor. At full capacity, it will be able to export up to 2.7 Bcf/d.
Natural Gas Storage and Supply
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
LNG Exports
Both NYMEX forward strips and LNG export levels remain near recent averages, suggesting a largely balanced market for now.
(Charts: NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips and LNG Exports)
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
What Should You Do?
A managed index electricity agreement can offer flexibility in a softer market. It allows you to set the contract structure now while choosing later when to lock in specific components of your rate, such as capacity, line losses, or future energy blocks. Because no energy is locked at signing, a longer contract term can create more time to watch the market and make more informed hedging decisions.
For natural gas customers on a NYMEX-plus agreement, this may be a smart time to review fixed-price options for the balance of the contract. Since gas prices over the next 24 months are trading near their lowest levels, locking in a fixed rate could be worth considering.
Natural Gas Production: Lower 48 States
Weather Outlook
Weather and demand
This week’s weather pattern brings a split setup across the country. Parts of the West will see showers and thunderstorms, along with cooler highs in the 60s and 70s.
At the same time, a strengthening heat ridge will drive temperatures into the 80s and 90s across much of the central and eastern U.S., while the Southwest pushes into the 100s. Chicago and the Ohio Valley are both expected to reach the 90s by midweek.
National demand is expected to be moderate today, then climb to high levels through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
JM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
This chart shows where current PJM AD Hub day‑ahead and forward power prices sit versus the past two years of trading, and whether today’s levels look cheap or expensive for each future period.
Big picture
- Each bar represents a 24‑month trading range for a specific month, quarter, or year in the future, with the light blue band showing the lowest and highest prices over the last 2 years.
- The dark mark inside each bar is today’s forward price, so you can instantly see if the market is currently near the top, middle, or bottom of its recent range.
What the table tells you
- The table underneath lists, for each period (Q2‑2026, Q3‑2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc.):
- Current price in that strip.
- The maximum and minimum prices over the last 24 months and the dates they occurred.
- The current percentile (for example, 3% means today is near the very bottom of the 2‑year range; 86% means it’s near the top).
- The actual prices at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles act like “cheap / mid / rich” reference points.
How to interpret it for decisions
- Periods where the current price is low on the bar and at a low percentile suggest relatively attractive buying or hedging opportunities compared with recent history.
- Periods where the current price is high on the bar and at a high percentile indicate the market is pricing that future strip richly, so you may want to be more cautious about locking in too much volume there.
NYMEX Price Trend Analysis
This chart shows that NYMEX natural gas prices over the next several years are relatively low compared with their recent trading range, but they remain volatile and tend to spike in winter months.
What the chart is basically saying
- It is a forward curve: each bar represents what the market today thinks gas will cost in a specific future month, based on NYMEX futures trading.
- The light blue “24M trading history” band around each month shows the range in which that contract has traded over the past two years, and the black line shows today’s price within that range.
- For many future months, today’s price is near the bottom of that 2‑year range (a very low percentile in the table), indicating the market is currently pricing gas on the cheaper side compared with recent history.
Big-picture energy market takeaway
- The curve gently rises over time and bumps up in winter (late 2026, 2027, 2028), reflecting expectations of stronger heating demand in cold months and the typical seasonal risk in natural gas.
- Because today’s prices sit near recent lows for many of those future periods (single‑digit to low‑double‑digit percentiles), the market is not currently forecasting a severe supply crunch; instead, it suggests adequate supply and only moderate risk premiums built in.
- For a business buyer, the practical implication is: forward prices are historically attractive right now, especially if you want to lock in budget certainty through the next several winters rather than gamble on future spikes.
