Natural Gas Storage and Supply
- The EIA reported an injection of 44 Bcf into underground storage for the week ending September 11, vs. an estimated injection of 50 Bcf.
- Inventories are 3,298 Bcf, -122 Bcf or 3.6% less than the same period last year and 118 Bcf or 3.7% more than the 5-year average.
- Injections have been lower than expected due to the hotter temperatures across the US resulting in more cooling demand.
What to Do Now
A managed index electricity agreement simply sets the framework for purchasing blocks of energy in the future, locking in only those parts of your rate that you decide to lock in such as capacity, line losses, etc. At any time, you can buy up blocks of energy or even lock in the entirety of the contract if the hedged rate is low enough. Look forward for opportunities such as 2029 where pricing for March through May and September through November are less than $50.00 per MWh. Look at hedging December, February, March and April. Taking 50% of those months at today’s prices is a pretty solid bet. Hold off on January. We are projected to have a strong El Nino this winter and that should bring pricing down.
When you look at your energy strategy, don’t just look at the price you are paying or the strategy you are using. Those are important, but just as important are the measures you take to reduce the amount of energy you use in the first place. You can find the best electricity rate available, but an inefficient HVAC or old lighting will more than wipe out any savings you might achieve by increasing the amount of electricity you use. The old saying “The cheapest electricity you have is the electricity you don’t use”, still holds true. Talk to an energy expert about getting a free site audit done at your facility.
Electricity pricing continues to rise, but in future years like 2029, is still lower than it is today and many months are trading abnormally low. Look at longer agreements, such as 48 or 60-month agreements to capture this lower pricing into your rate.
With Gas pricing so low across the board, the best play may be to lock in gas agreements for the longest term possible as it does not appear that gas pricing will drop to the current pricing for the foreseeable future.
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
- Pricing on Natural Gas may have cycled down to its lowest point as we have been near $2.75-$2.90 for the last few weeks now.
- Winter pricing for December through March remains historically low with January the highest month trading at $3.774 and March trading at just $2.79.
Natural Gas Production: Lower 48 States
Production Snapshot
The pricing for the 12-month strip and for 2027 continue to cycle lower with pricing hovering right around $3.00. While this winter is seeing lower pricing, 2028, 2029 and 2030 are all trending higher. This should prompt buyers to lock in now for as long as possible.
- Production remains near newly created record levels with production reaching 112.1 Bcf/d
- Increased production has been a main driver in keeping Natural Gas prices below $3.00 in the prompt month.
- Natural Gas drillers are now producing more with less investment as production c0ntinues to grow while CAPEX investment in drilling and exploration fell 49% in the last year
Weather Outlook
7-Day Weather & Demand Outlook
While the average temperature for this time of the year drops lower with the shorter hours of daylight, the temperatures around the country have been al most uniformly ABOVE normal temps. This has resulted in temps that are still reaching 90+ degrees across the South and Southeast and even 100 degrees in Arizona.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
This chart shows where current PJM AD Hub day‑ahead and forward power prices sit versus the past two years of trading, and whether today’s levels look cheap or expensive for each future period.
Big picture
- Each bar represents a 24‑month trading range for a specific month, quarter, or year in the future, with the light blue band showing the lowest and highest prices over the last 2 years.
- The dark mark inside each bar is today’s forward price, so you can instantly see if the market is currently near the top, middle, or bottom of its recent range.
What the table tells you
The table underneath lists, for each period (Q2‑2026, Q3‑2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc.):
- The abnormally warm September has resulted in higher-than-expected pricing in September, now just under $70.00 per MWh, this is an increase of 16.7% in one week. Look to 2029 for some good opportunities to hedge pricing. March – June and September – November are all trading below expected levels, though these are starting to climb back into the normal range.
- Pricing overall has risen in the past week with the yearly average DA/ATC price rising from $57 to $58 for 2026 and following years also increasing.
How to interpret it for decisions
- Periods where the current price is low on the bar and at a low percentile suggest relatively attractive buying or hedging opportunities compared with recent history.
- Periods where the current price is high on the bar and at a high percentile indicate the market is pricing that future strip richly, so you may want to be more cautious about locking in too much volume there.
NYMEX Price Trend Analysis
This chart shows that NYMEX natural gas prices over the next several years are relatively low compared with their recent trading range, but they remain volatile and tend to spike in winter months.
Key NYMEX Insights
- Natural Gas continues to trade at its lowest point in the near term, all the way through April 2028, that is when gas goes from being traded near its lowest point to near its highest point. Watch to see if the low point/high point mark moves further in the future or closer to the present.
- After early 2028, pricing continues to trade near its highest point compared the past 24 months. This may be on the expected increase in demand for natural gas due to power demand or it could be due to the scheduled opening of more LNG facilities which would decrease storage domestically while increasing export.
- This will also be due to the expected demand for Natural Gas coming from the electricity demand created by AI data centers. Remember, the PJM electric grid relies on Natural Gas power plants to generate 40% of their electricity.
Big-picture energy market takeaway
- Natural Gas continues to trade at its lowest point in the near term, all the way through April 2028, which is a broader expanse of low pricing than just two weeks ago.
- After early 2028, pricing continues to trade near it’s highest point compared the past 24 months. This may be on the expected increase in demand for natural gas due to power demand or it could be due to the scheduled opening of more LNG facilities which would decrease storage domestically while increasing exports.
- This will also be due to the expected demand for Natural Gas coming from the electricity demand created by AI data centers. Remember, the PJM electric grid relies on Natural Gas power plants to generate 40% of their electricity.
Ampica Advise: The Demand-Side Advantage
Energy procurement matters—but reducing consumption is just as important. Even the best electricity rate can be outweighed by unnecessary energy use from inefficient HVAC equipment, aging lighting, or other avoidable facility loads.
