TPI’s Weekly Energy Market Newsletter
Supply Update
- Last week’s natural gas injection was +53 Bcf—the first time in over two months it did not exceed both the five-year average and last year’s injection. This was primarily due to the recent high-demand heat wave across the U.S.
- Despite this, the overall pace of injections remains strong. At the current rate, we may surpass last year’s total injection by mid-September, much earlier than previously expected.
Natural Gas Storage Report
Demand Trends
- LNG exports have rebounded to nearly 16 Bcf/d, returning to near capacity with spring maintenance now complete. The U.S. is currently less than 3.5 Bcf/d away from its maximum LNG export capacity, pending the addition of new facilities.
- The 12-month calendar strip for natural gas suggests prices will rise in 2026 and then fall below 2025 levels in 2027 and 2028.
- Over the next five years, LNG export capacity is projected to grow from just under 17.0 Bcf/d to 33.5 Bcf/d by 2030. This will significantly tighten available supply and production unless domestic supply increases.
Storage Plus or Minus, US
What Should You Do?
- Now is a good time to buy electricity and gas and to consider long-term contracts.
- Short contracts covering 2026 are likely to be more expensive than blended pricing, which includes 2027, 2028, and 2029.
- Eliminate premiums on rate components such as capacity wherever possible.
- If your usage exceeds 1 million kWh per year, consider a managed index product. This allows you to purchase energy blocks during market dips and offers protection against potential price surges.
Near & Mid-Term Price Action
- Speculators, not fundamentals, are currently driving natural gas prices.
- A recent 104-Bcf storage injection, slightly above expectations, caused the June contract to drop 19.6¢ intraday, dampening bullish momentum. Technical indicators still point higher, and a mild seasonal supply dip could offer support.
- Weather-driven demand is currently mild, but the addition of 19 cooling degree days (CDDs) week-over-week—especially for Week 2—is supportive. Temperatures may reach 90°F as far north as Minneapolis, with the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast also trending warmer into late May. However, the loss of late-season heating demand is fundamentally bearish.
- Physical Henry Hub spot prices are at $3.23, 36¢ below the front-month contract. Cheniere has confirmed heavy LNG maintenance for June.
- While market momentum is bullish and traders are eager for upward movement, the near-to-medium-term fundamentals remain soft.
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
ALL ABOUT THE NYMEX TWELVE-MONTH STRIP
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is the average of the upcoming 12 months of closing Henry Hub natural gas futures prices as reported on CME/NYMEX.
- A futures strip is the buying or selling of futures contracts in sequential delivery months traded as a single transaction.
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year with 12 monthly contracts connected into a strip.
- The average price of these 12 contracts is the particular price that traders can transact at, indicating the direction of natural gas prices.
- The price of the NYMEX Twelve Month Strip can show the average cost of the next twelve months’ worth of futures.
- The NYMEX Twelve Month Strip is also used to understand the direction of natural gas prices and to lock in a specific price for natural gas futures for a year.
Risk Assessment
- Remain cautious of upside price risks for Calendar 2026. A portfolio approach is recommended to manage volatility and exposure.
- At the front of the curve, PJM futures could see renewed downside into late spring, but risk-averse end users may want to lock in recent price declines.
- Calendar 2026 is dominated by upside price risks, driven by load growth and tightening reserve margins.
- The longer-term outlook is uncertain: while fundamentals appear weak, a recession or warmer-than-normal winters could present more favorable procurement opportunities.
This Week’s Weather Outlook (July 14–20)
- Expect a messy pattern with numerous showers and thunderstorms but also very warm to hot conditions across most of the U.S.
- Highs will generally be in the upper 80s and 90s, with 100s in California and the Southwest.
- Cooler exceptions are expected across the northern third of the U.S., with highs in the 70s and 80s.
- Demand will remain strong for the next 3 days, then ease somewhat over days 4–7.
Natural Gas NYMEX Analytics
For tailored procurement strategies or further market insights, please get in touch with your energy advisor.
