Energy Market Update: Sept. 24, 2025
Natural Gas Storage
According to the latest EIA report, working gas in storage stood at 3,433 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of September 12, 2025. This represents a net injection of 90 Bcf compared to the prior week. Current levels are 4 Bcf below this time last year, but 204 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,229 Bcf, keeping stocks comfortably within the historical range.
Storage has been remarkably steady this summer despite volatile fundamentals. Record production has offset record LNG exports, while a hot July was neutralized by a cooler August. As a result, the market remains balanced as winter approaches.
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION CHART
Production remains robust but has recently eased:
- Current production: 105.6 Bcf/d
- Day-over-day change: -0.2 Bcf/d
- Week-over-week change: -1.0 Bcf/d
- Month-over-month change: -2.8 Bcf/d
- 30-day average: 106.9 Bcf/d
- Year-over-year change: +5.2 Bcf/d
Natural Gas Market Overview
Prompt-month natural gas prices are holding near $3/MMBtu, reflecting a bearishly balanced market. Ample storage levels are keeping prices in check as we approach the end of the injection season. Market fundamentals will play a crucial role in determining whether prices shift higher once heating demand begins to increase in the coming weeks
Energy Policy Watch
Federal energy agencies are continuing to roll back regulations. The EPA has proposed easing Greenhouse Gas Emission Reporting requirements, scaling back mandates for large facilities, fuel and industrial gas suppliers, and CO₂ injection sites. This proposal reflects another step in carrying out the Trump administration’s energy policy agenda.
Weather This Week
From midweek into the weekend, the northern two-thirds of the U.S. will see pleasant, fall-like highs ranging from the upper 60s to low 80s. The southern states will stay much warmer with highs in the upper 80s to 90s.
This setup will keep energy demand moderate early in the week, tapering down to low levels by the weekend as cooling needs ease.
Long-Term Weather Outlook
Looking ahead, much of the country will experience above-normal to much above-normal temperatures through late September and into early October:
- In the West and across the northern tier, normal averages have already slipped below cooling demand thresholds.
- The usual rise in heating demand in early October looks to be delayed.
- Across the South, cooling demand is expected to remain strong, particularly along the Gulf Coast and Coastal Texas, where higher humidity exacerbates the heat.
- Cooling demand in the West will be limited to the Desert Southwest and interior California.
Electricity: Did You Know?
- PJM’s latest capacity auction results signal rising costs in the region, with AI data center demand a major driver of higher bills and increased volatility. Some forecasts suggest rates could jump up to 60% over the next five years in the PJM area.
Capacity Market Update
- The 2026/2027 PJM Capacity Auction results were released in late July, with prices rising to $329.17/MW-day, slightly above the expected collar max due to a last-minute adjustment.
