Pricing Trends
Short-term natural gas continues to slide, with prompt-month pricing dipping below $2.60 on April 14. Next winter’s contracts have also softened—January prices fell more than ten cents per Dth.
Gas futures for the next three to four years trade near the bottom of their 24‑month range, while electricity prices remain average. Historically, electricity lags gas; if demand stays mild, power prices may ease soon.
Watch next winter: all winter month prices are below $5.00 per MMBtu, with January at $4.60—a level not seen since the late‑January cold snap.
Risk & Reliability
With PJM’s 2027/2028 capacity auction coming up short of the necessary reserves, the risk of rolling brownouts or blackouts grows more serious. Act now: evaluate your facility’s backup power capabilities and invest in backup generators to ensure operational continuity.
- Consider incorporating solar plus battery storage into your facility’s resilience strategy—begin evaluating solutions and budgeting for implementation this quarter.
- Consider installing power‑quality measures to protect equipment and improve reliability.
- Enroll in Demand Response programs to earn peak-period incentives.
Risk & Reliability
With PJM’s 2027/2028 capacity auction coming up short of the necessary reserves, the risk of rolling brownouts or blackouts grows more serious. Act now: evaluate your facility’s backup power capabilities and invest in backup generators to ensure operational continuity.
- Consider incorporating solar plus battery storage into your facility’s resilience strategy—begin evaluating solutions and budgeting for implementation this quarter.
- Consider installing power‑quality measures to protect equipment and improve reliability.
- Enroll in Demand Response programs to earn peak-period incentives.
Weather & Demand Outlook (Apr 15–20)
Most of the U.S. will run warmer than normal, with highs in the 60s–80s and pockets of 90s stretching from the South up the East Coast. Cooler exceptions in the West and far northern regions will see highs in the 40s–50s and lows in the 20s–30s.
National natural gas demand remains low through Saturday, then trends moderate Sunday–Tuesday as slight cooling returns.
National natural gas demand remains low through Saturday, then trends moderate Sunday–Tuesday as slight cooling returns.
Natural Gas Storage and Supply
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
LNG Exports
Both NYMEX forward strips and LNG export levels remain near recent averages, suggesting a largely balanced market for now.
(Charts: NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips and LNG Exports)
Electricity Market Trends
(PJM) Ad Hub day-ahead prices remain under 5¢/kWh through the next three months, with next winter’s pricing also looking more favorable than last year’s.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
JM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
This chart shows where current PJM AD Hub day‑ahead and forward power prices sit versus the past two years of trading, and whether today’s levels look cheap or expensive for each future period.
Big picture
- Each bar represents a 24‑month trading range for a specific month, quarter, or year in the future, with the light blue band showing the lowest and highest prices over the last 2 years.
- The dark mark inside each bar is today’s forward price, so you can instantly see if the market is currently near the top, middle, or bottom of its recent range.
What the table tells you
- The table underneath lists, for each period (Q2‑2026, Q3‑2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc.):
- Current price in that strip.
- The maximum and minimum prices over the last 24 months and the dates they occurred.
- The current percentile (for example, 3% means today is near the very bottom of the 2‑year range; 86% means it’s near the top).
- The actual prices at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles act like “cheap / mid / rich” reference points.
How to interpret it for decisions
- Periods where the current price is low on the bar and at a low percentile suggest relatively attractive buying or hedging opportunities compared with recent history.
- Periods where the current price is high on the bar and at a high percentile indicate the market is pricing that future strip richly, so you may want to be more cautious about locking in too much volume there.
Natural Gas Production
