Natural Gas Pricing Trends
Natural gas prices continue to hover around the $2.70 mark, with only slight upward movement in recent days. On the power side, forward electricity pricing for next winter is trending downward, driven by expectations of a strong El Niño pattern that could bring milder-than-normal winter conditions.
Looking further out, natural gas pricing through November 2027 is now at its lowest level in the past two years. For organizations with NYMEX+ contracts expiring within the next 18 months, this may be a good time to explore fixing a portion—or all—of remaining volumes.
Winter pricing also remains favorable. All winter months are currently priced below $5.00/MMBtu, with January—the peak demand month—holding near $4.60.
Natural Gas Production
Strategic Considerations
A managed index electricity strategy offers flexibility in a shifting market. Rather than locking in energy upfront, this approach allows you to secure components like capacity and transmission while choosing when—and how much—energy to hedge over time.
Because you’re not committing to energy purchases at contract signing, longer-term agreements can provide more opportunity to monitor market conditions and make informed hedging decisions. This strategy is especially effective for organizations with annual usage above 1,500,000 kWh.
At the same time, PJM capacity concerns are becoming more urgent. The 2027/2028 capacity auction failed to secure sufficient backup supply to meet projected demand, increasing the risk of reliability events such as brownouts or blackouts.
Now is the time to evaluate resilience measures, including:
Backup generation
Solar paired with battery storage
Power quality and reliability upgrades
Additionally, with capacity costs rising, enrolling in a Demand Response program can provide both cost savings and new revenue opportunities—especially for businesses able to curtail usage during peak demand periods.
Natural Gas Storage and Supply
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
LNG Exports
Both NYMEX forward strips and LNG export levels remain near recent averages, suggesting a largely balanced market for now.
(Charts: NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips and LNG Exports)
Electricity Market Trends
(PJM) Ad Hub day-ahead prices remain under 5¢/kWh through the next three months, with next winter’s pricing also looking more favorable than last year’s.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
Big picture
- Each bar represents a 24‑month trading range for a specific month, quarter, or year in the future, with the light blue band showing the lowest and highest prices over the last 2 years.
- The dark mark inside each bar is today’s forward price, so you can instantly see if the market is currently near the top, middle, or bottom of its recent range.
What the table tells you
- The table underneath lists, for each period (Q2‑2026, Q3‑2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc.):
- Current price in that strip.
- The maximum and minimum prices over the last 24 months and the dates they occurred.
- The current percentile (for example, 3% means today is near the very bottom of the 2‑year range; 86% means it’s near the top).
- The actual prices at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles act like “cheap / mid / rich” reference points.
How to interpret it for decisions
- Periods where the current price is low on the bar and at a low percentile suggest relatively attractive buying or hedging opportunities compared with recent history.
- Periods where the current price is high on the bar and at a high percentile indicate the market is pricing that future strip richly, so you may want to be more cautious about locking in too much volume there.
Weather Outlook
A brief cool-down is impacting the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast through early Tuesday, with lows in the 20s–30s and highs in the 30s–50s.
Elsewhere, much of the country is experiencing mild to warm conditions, with highs in the 60s–80s. Another cool shot will reach the Northern Plains later this week, but most regions will trend warmer overall.
National energy demand is expected to be moderate early in the week before easing back to low levels.
