Energy Market Pricing Overview
Natural gas prices continue to soften. The prompt month on the NYMEX is down another ten cents from last week as the U.S. officially enters injection season. With moderate spring temperatures reducing heating and cooling demand nationwide, short-term pricing remains subdued.
Looking ahead, the Day-Ahead Forward Trend Analysis shows that yearly average prices are expected to decline through December 2029, making long-term agreements increasingly attractive. Lower out-year prices help reduce overall rates across multi-year contracts.
Strategic Considerations
Consider:
- Backup generators or solar-plus-battery systems.
- Power quality measures to protect facilities during outages.
- Enrolling in a Demand Response program, which pays participants to curtail usage during high-demand events.
- As capacity costs continue rising, these measures can offset risk and even create new revenue streams.
Weather & Natural Gas Outlook (April 8–13)
Natural Gas Storage and Supply
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
LNG Exports
Both NYMEX forward strips and LNG export levels remain near recent averages, suggesting a largely balanced market for now.
(Charts: NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips and LNG Exports)
Electricity Market Trends
(PJM) Ad Hub day-ahead prices remain under 5¢/kWh through the next three months, with next winter’s pricing also looking more favorable than last year’s.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
Big picture
- Each bar represents a 24‑month trading range for a specific month, quarter, or year in the future, with the light blue band showing the lowest and highest prices over the last 2 years.
- The dark mark inside each bar is today’s forward price, so you can instantly see if the market is currently near the top, middle, or bottom of its recent range.
What the table tells you
- The table underneath lists, for each period (Q2‑2026, Q3‑2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc.):
- Current price in that strip.
- The maximum and minimum prices over the last 24 months and the dates they occurred.
- The current percentile (for example, 3% means today is near the very bottom of the 2‑year range; 86% means it’s near the top).
- The actual prices at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles act like “cheap / mid / rich” reference points.
How to interpret it for decisions
- Periods where the current price is low on the bar and at a low percentile suggest relatively attractive buying or hedging opportunities compared with recent history.
- Periods where the current price is high on the bar and at a high percentile indicate the market is pricing that future strip richly, so you may want to be more cautious about locking in too much volume there.
Natural Gas Production
Market Indicators
If prices sit near the bottom of their recent range, contracts may be considered “cheap,” offering potential buying opportunities.
