Energy Market Overview
After a brief uptick last week, natural gas prices retreated once again. The April Prompt Month is now trading below $2.90/MMBtu, continuing a soft trend for the next few months. Geopolitical tensions—particularly the conflict in Iran—have had a much greater impact on U.S. oil markets than on natural gas markets.
That’s because U.S. LNG export capacity is already near its limit at 21–23 Bcf/d, with current exports topping 19.0 Bcf/d. With facilities running at full tilt, additional global demand simply can’t be met, keeping U.S. gas supplies more insulated and prices subdued.
Meanwhile, electricity markets are showing the opposite pattern. Power rates for next winter are climbing sharply, with December 2026 prices expected to rise by nearly 1¢ per kWh.
Weather Insights
Light weather-driven gas demand is expected today and Thursday, with moderate demand Friday through Sunday as a weak system moves through. Warmer-than-average March temperatures continue to support early injections and moderated prices.
Natural Gas Storage and Supply
The latest EIA data reported a +35 Bcf injection into storage last week—an early sign that injection season is approaching. The official storage injection season begins April 1, and analysts expect steady builds in the coming weeks as mild spring weather limits heating demand.
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
Strategic Considerations
Now is an ideal time to hedge part of your exposure during the shoulder months—April, May, September, and October—to capture these low prices.
- Current forward pricing ranges from $0.039 per kWh this spring to $0.0464 per kWh in October 2027.
On the capacity front, the 2027/2028 PJM auction fell short of expected reserve targets, raising concerns about potential rolling brownouts or blackouts in high-demand periods. Businesses can reduce risk and even earn revenue by exploring:
- Backup generation or solar-plus-storage systems
- Power-quality solutions to stabilize operations
- Demand Response programs, which pay participants for lowering usage during grid stress events
LNG Exports
Both NYMEX forward strips and LNG export levels remain near recent averages, suggesting a largely balanced market for now.
(Charts: NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips and LNG Exports)
Electricity Market Trends
(PJM) Ad Hub day-ahead prices remain under 5¢/kWh through the next three months, with next winter’s pricing also looking more favorable than last year’s.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
Natural Gas Production
