Weekly Market Update
Natural gas pricing remains favorable, with prompt-month prices hovering near $2.70 and May settling at $2.559, the lowest settlement since November 2024. Forward gas pricing through November 2027 is also trading at its lowest point in the past 24 months, creating an opening for customers with NYMEX-plus contracts expiring in the next 18 months to evaluate fixed-price options for the balance of their term.
Natural Gas Production
Production Snapshot
Recent market reporting shows Lower 48 dry gas production hovering near 107 Bcf/d, with production trends easing modestly from recent highs. That softer production backdrop is worth watching as the market balances weather-driven demand, storage injections, and LNG feedgas volumes heading into early May.
Pricing
- Prompt-month pricing continues to hover near $2.70, while the May contract settled at $2.559, its lowest settlement since November 2024.
- Natural gas for the next 18 months through November 2027 is now trading at its lowest level in the past 24 months.
- If an NYMEX-plus contract expires within the next 18 months, this may be a good time to request a fixed price for the remainder of the term.
- LNG exports eased from near-record highs last week, though export volumes remain close to record levels, according to the provided market commentary.
Natural Gas Storage and Supply
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Outlook report tracks the volume of natural gas in underground U.S. storage, revealing weekly fluctuations and comparison against 5-year averages.
Natural Gas Pricing Snapshot
LNG Exports
Both NYMEX forward strips and LNG export levels remain near recent averages, suggesting a largely balanced market for now.
(Charts: NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips and LNG Exports)
NYMEX Natural Gas Calendar Strips
The NYMEX 12-Month Strip averages the next 12 months of Henry Hub futures into one price. It’s a powerful indicator of market sentiment — allowing traders (and end users) to lock in year-long coverage at a blended rate.
Watching shifts in this strip helps gauge the broader direction of gas markets, beyond just the prompt month.
Strategy
A managed index electricity agreement establishes the framework for future energy purchases without requiring all energy volumes to be locked in at the time of signing. This structure can allow portions of the rate, such as capacity or line losses, to be fixed over time while leaving room to buy additional blocks later if market conditions improve.
Because energy is not fully locked in on day one, a longer agreement can provide more time to monitor the market and make staged hedging decisions. For organizations using more than 1,500,000 kWh annually, a managed index strategy may be especially worth considering based on the guidance provided in the source copy.
PJM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
Electricity Market Trends
(PJM) Ad Hub day-ahead prices remain under 5¢/kWh through the next three months, with next winter’s pricing also looking more favorable than last year’s.
JM Ad Hub DA & Forward Trend Analysis
This chart shows where current PJM AD Hub day‑ahead and forward power prices sit versus the past two years of trading, and whether today’s levels look cheap or expensive for each future period.
Big picture
- Each bar represents a 24‑month trading range for a specific month, quarter, or year in the future, with the light blue band showing the lowest and highest prices over the last 2 years.
- The dark mark inside each bar is today’s forward price, so you can instantly see if the market is currently near the top, middle, or bottom of its recent range.
What the table tells you
- The table underneath lists, for each period (Q2‑2026, Q3‑2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc.):
- Current price in that strip.
- The maximum and minimum prices over the last 24 months and the dates they occurred.
- The current percentile (for example, 3% means today is near the very bottom of the 2‑year range; 86% means it’s near the top).
- The actual prices at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles act like “cheap / mid / rich” reference points.
How to interpret it for decisions
- Periods where the current price is low on the bar and at a low percentile suggest relatively attractive buying or hedging opportunities compared with recent history.
- Periods where the current price is high on the bar and at a high percentile indicate the market is pricing that future strip richly, so you may want to be more cautious about locking in too much volume there.
Weather Outlook
A cooler-than-normal system over the Midwest will spread eastward from Wednesday through Saturday, bringing showers, highs in the 40s to 60s, and lows in the upper 20s to 30s, according to the provided outlook text. The western and southern United States will stay mild to warm, with highs mostly in the 60s to 80s and pockets of 90s in the Southwest and far southern Texas. Overall power demand is expected to be moderate from Wednesday through Friday, then low over the weekend, according to the forecast language provided.
