The projected US winter forecast for 2025/2026 indicates a mix of colder-than-normal and warmer conditions driven by a weak La Niña event and shifting stratospheric winds, resulting in regional contrasts that could impact energy prices through elevated volatility and demand spikes. This winter is expected to produce colder outbreaks across the Midwest and Northeast. At the same time, the southern US will likely experience warmer and drier weather conditions, shaping the outlook for electricity and natural gas prices.

Weather Outlook Details

• Forecasts call for a weak La Niña pattern influencing the US winter, with a weaker Polar Vortex allowing more dynamic pressure patterns and occasional colder air outbreaks, particularly from the north into the Midwest and Northeast.
• The NOAA winter temperature forecast favors warmer-than-normal conditions for the southern half of the US. At the same time, the northern tier—including the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and New England—may experience occasional colder spells and above-average precipitation and snowfall.
• According to preliminary models, snowfall anomalies will be more pronounced in regions east of the Rockies and near the Great Lakes, and less so in western and southern areas.

Relationship to Energy Prices

• Energy costs for winter 2025/2026 are expected to rise further, with retail electricity rates forecasted to increase by 3.5% from 2025 to 2026, reaching about 17.6 cents per kWh for commercial users.
• Wholesale electricity prices may surpass $48/MWh nationally, propelled by increased winter demand, natural gas price inflation, and grid constraints—especially during periods of cold snaps or extreme weather.
• The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to average $4.80/MMBtu in 2026, up from $4.12/MMBtu in 2025, due to higher winter demand, global LNG exports, and weather-driven volatility.
• Colder spells, especially in the northern and eastern US, will drive heating demand upward, creating risk for regional price spikes in both electricity and natural gas during peak periods.
• Businesses and utilities may face higher volatility due to rapid shifts between mild and harsh conditions, which are magnified by infrastructure and supply constraints, as well as continued electrification trends, such as the expansion of EV charging infrastructure.

Key Takeaways for Energy Market Strategy

• Expect elevated volatility and potential price spikes in wholesale electricity and natural gas, especially during peak cold periods in the Midwest and Northeast.
• Southern US businesses might see less price impact from heating but could encounter rate increases driven by overall national demand and fuel inflation.
• Continuous monitoring and active risk management in energy procurement will be critical throughout winter 2025/2026, as rapidly changing weather conditions could cause costs to fluctuate suddenly.

This winter’s pattern is likely to produce both operational and budgetary challenges for energy buyers, requiring a proactive and data-driven approach to managing energy risks and costs.